Oil climbs to about $107 a barrel after Houthi strike on Aramco HQ and Iran's tanker threats

Key takeaways

• Brent crude rose about 1.35% to $107.35 a barrel on Wednesday (14 October), while US WTI gained to about $95.38, according to figures reported by The Economic Times. Prices moved during the day; later quotes on OilPrice.com showed Brent near $106.4.
• The rise followed a Houthi missile strike on Saudi Aramco's headquarters complex in Dhahran, after the Houthis declared Saudi oil sites a "legitimate target".
• Two senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Iran is using new tactics to target tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by both outlets.
• Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario where oil reaches $120 if attacks on ships escalate, or falls back towards $80 if exports return to normal.
• Saudi Arabia plans to expand its East-West pipeline capacity, which analysts at ING see as a partial offset.

What is pushing prices up

Attacks on Saudi Arabia. For the past week the Houthis have fired missiles and drones at Saudi sites in response to the kingdom's support for government forces in Yemen's renewed civil war, The Economic Times reported. The Dhahran complex houses a major Aramco operations centre that manages oil fields, pipelines, refineries and export terminals.

Shipping risk in Hormuz. Iranian officials told Reuters that recent tanker attacks were linked to new tactics and suggested they would continue. An analyst quoted by Reuters said Iran knows how much leverage high oil prices give it.

Wider uncertainty. JPMorgan analysts said they could not model how the US-Iran war would end, according to The Economic Times. Goldman Sachs said risks to shipping have become a major driver of prices, and that shocks to gas and refined fuel supply are larger than to crude.

What could push prices down

• Saudi Arabia raised output last month, and OPEC+ production rose sharply, OPEC said on Tuesday.
• Saudi plans to add about 1.2 million barrels per day of capacity to the East-West pipeline within months, which would let more oil bypass Hormuz — though ING noted those barrels still need safe shipping.
• Hopes of more Russian diesel exports also weighed on prices.

Price snapshot (14 October)

Why it matters for Pakistan and India

Both countries import most of their crude oil and fuel, so sustained prices above $100 tend to raise import bills and put pressure on local fuel prices and inflation. Any change in Pakistan's domestic petrol price is decided separately by the government in its regular reviews.

What to watch

• Further Houthi attacks on Saudi energy sites or airports.
• Tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and any US response.
• OPEC+ output decisions and progress on Saudi pipeline expansion.

This is for information only and is not financial or investment advice.