IMF warns Gulf growth recovery may take longer after regional war

Key takeaways

The IMF's regional briefing says the Middle East conflict is affecting economies unevenly and weighing particularly on directly exposed producers.

What happened

In its 15 October Middle East and Central Asia briefing, the IMF said conflict-related disruptions are weighing heavily on directly affected economies, while some oil importers and other economies have shown more resilience. The assessment indicates a return to pre-war growth is not imminent for the most affected Gulf economies. This is a forecast under uncertainty, not an observed future outcome.

Why it matters

Energy, trade and public finances connect the region's outlook to households and businesses well beyond the Gulf.

What to watch

The IMF's next forecasts and data on production, trade and reconstruction will test the recovery outlook.

Sources

• https://mediacenter.imf.org/news/imf-middle-east-and-central-asia-department-press-briefing/s/56766665-b5a3-4df2-8fd0-5c79b8bd9a97
• https://www.dawn.com/news/2037305/imf-warns-gulf-economies-will-not-return-to-pre-war-growth-soon